The economic situation in Russia is now quitedifficult, and many citizens think about how to ensure the safety of savings by investing them in the purchase of an apartment. Some expect to invest in real estate at the expense of personal funds, others rely on bank loans. But is it worth taking a mortgage now? Perhaps there are more appropriate ways of investing?
To answer the question, is it worth taking nowmortgage, when Russia has a difficult economic situation, it will be useful to start to analyze, what are the key components of the banking crisis, which so many analysts say. Then we will try to determine how much the EU and US sanctions against Russia are to blame for this situation - it is they who are asked to play a key role in the fact that crisis trends have emerged in the Russian economy.
So, what are the problems in the nationalthe banking system of Russia? Experts identify two main groups of crisis indicators, which, in turn, are formed under the influence of a large number of diverse factors.
The first crisis indicator: the solvency of the population is declining. People simply can not afford to make out new loans. This, in turn, is associated with the following main factors.
First, with the growth of inflation, the increase in prices formost consumer goods, especially imported products. The most noticeable increase in the cost of household appliances. And this despite the fact that the real salary, if it grows, it is not in commensurate proportions. Also, prices for housing and communal services, transport are steadily growing. Result: citizens do not have free funds to service loans.
Secondly, it is crediting a significantparts of citizens. Many not so much think about whether it is worth taking a mortgage now, how much over how to repay previous loans. Very many Russians have difficulties in repaying their current debt.
Now let's try to determine howinfluenced the emergence of the first crisis indicator of economic sanctions against Russia. Regarding the first factor, probably there is influence. Experts attribute the rise in price of products to the RF food embargo against European suppliers - and this is somehow connected with sanctions. This is the Russian response to them. Regarding the second factor - most likely, the fault of sanctions here is relative. The fact is that most of the loans were issued by Russians long before the political situation worsened.
Probably, we will also have the right to note that bothfactor, forming the corresponding indicator, are connected with each other. The rise in price of products and services, obviously, further limits the solvency of a potential borrower, provided that it has loans.
The second crisis indicator:deterioration of the situation in banks, as a result - the inability of credit and financial institutions to issue loans, including mortgage loans, as well as to offer them on conditions that are comfortable for the consumer. Factors of the current situation, in turn, are as follows.
First, banks are now extremely limitedfree capital. In order to give something to borrowers, banks should have something. Liquidity of Russian credit institutions by many experts is estimated as not high.
Secondly, banks, oddly enough, are in a similar situation with borrowers - in the aspect of credit. The fact is that they themselves owe a lot to foreign creditors, the Russian Central Bank.
In turn, we will try to determine whether the sanctions areare to blame for the current situation? Many experts believe that this is so. Why? Supporters of this point of view emphasize that a significant part of Russian credit and financial institutions are debtors of foreign creditors. In the years prior to the sanctions, they actively carried out foreign loans, taking advantage of the interest conditions on interest. The repayment of debts was largely assumed at the expense of refinancing mechanisms - at the expense of new foreign loans. Now, when, under conditions of sanctions, Russian banks have practically lost the opportunity to lend abroad, financiers need to look for new sources for payments. Many credit institutions, analysts say, do not have their own reserves for this. And even more so do not have the capital to issue it as loans.
Forecasts on how themortgage, what to expect from the market, largely depend, analysts believe, after all on the actual state of affairs in banks. The aspect reflecting the activity of potential borrowers is secondary at this stage. Even if the Russians had no problems with solvency, dictated by price increases (especially - on electronics and other imported goods) and the lack of real wage growth, the situation in the banking industry itself is too far from optimal so that the mortgage market develops as actively as in the the last few years, economists believe.
Most likely, analysts believe, banks, ifwish to actively lend to citizens in times of crisis, they will do so by significantly raising interest rates. Or the tightening of the criteria for approving the loan. Thus, it is possible a scenario in which a person does not even have to think about whether to take a mortgage now. Most likely, the bank simply can not provide a loan on comfortable terms. Or even deny the application for internal crisis reasons. Does it make sense now to take a mortgage when the situation in banks is far from optimal? Many experts believe that such decisions are not yet justified.
Consider a successful scenario - say,a Russian person does not have problems with acting loans, he has a high salary, and the bank, in principle, is ready to provide him with a loan for the purchase of housing. Should I now take out a mortgage for this citizen? The answer to this question can be given based on the study of the key aspect of the forthcoming transaction: will it not turn out that after the purchase of an apartment after a while it will fall in price so much that a mortgage will prove to be unprofitable for a person?
In this aspect, solving the problem with whether it is worthit is more expedient to study the market not so much from the point of view of the crisis situation in banks and sanctions, but rather in terms of analyzing trends reflecting the dynamics of real estate purchase and sale. Of course, the political situation here plays a role. But the key factor in the prospects for investments in housing, experts say, is the state of affairs in the relevant market.
How are things in the real estate segment?Is it profitable now to take a mortgage in terms of the expected movement of housing prices? Experts identify three possible scenarios concerning the prospects for the development of the market.
According to the first, property prices inThe coming years will remain at a level more or less relevant to the current one. Supporters of this view believe that the current real estate market in terms of pricing, supply and demand is fairly balanced. Potential decline in consumer activity due to the restriction of lending by banks and low borrowers' creditworthiness, economists believe, will be accompanied by a corresponding decline in supply - largely due to the fact that homeowners prefer to wait out the crisis and not sell housing too cheaply. Is it profitable now to take a mortgage relative to this scenario? Probably not very. Prices will remain the same, and interest to the bank, which, moreover, is likely to be large due to the crisis, will have to pay.
However, it makes sense to make an apartment on creditin case a person is now renting housing, and the expected amount of payments will be commensurate with rental rates. However, this option assumes that the citizen has a significant amount for the initial payment of a mortgage. And in this case, it is probably more profitable to formalize it as a deposit, receive interest, due to which, in turn, pay for rented apartment. Some banks now offer to issue a contribution of 20% per annum or more. This is due, according to analysts, with the increase in the refinancing rate of the Central Bank, which in December rose to 17%. If we take as a basis the scenario discussed above, from the investment point of view, the deposit will look more profitable than investing in an apartment - it is unlikely that it, in this case, will rise in price by 20% per year, and then another by the same amount, while in the case with the deposit, interest is paid by the bank in progression.
The second scenario assumes that prices forThe real estate will still grow. This will be associated, first of all, with inflationary processes. It is expected, for example, that in summing up the results of economic development in 2014, the corresponding figure will exceed 11%. Even if the demand in the real estate market is not sufficiently dynamic, experts believe, the increase in housing prices, in general, can be expected in proportion to inflation. Is it worth to take a mortgage now, if you consider this scenario?
Most likely, benchmarks for the potentialthe buyer in this case here will be approximately the same as in the case with the first option. That is, you can take a loan for an apartment, if at the moment the housing is withdrawn, and interest payments will be the same or not much larger than the rent. Or make a deposit for the amount collected for the initial payment, receive interest and due to this, pay for rent.
The third scenario involves lower prices forhousing. This will be due, in turn, to a possible imbalance between supply and demand in the market, which may be warmed by the fact that in recent years a significant amount of new buildings has been introduced in Russia. Although a significant proportion of the apartments constructed under these projects are equity, yet a perceptible percentage of them will subsequently be sold at market prices or, for example, resold. This may create, as some economists believe, an excessive supply in the housing market.
Probably, if we follow this scenario, evenit makes no sense to wonder whether it is worth taking a mortgage now. Of course, this will not be the best option. If it is a question of search of favorable investments it is possible to pay attention to deposits. If there is a need for housing, it is better to rent it, especially as the corresponding rates tend to fall after the purchase and sale segment.
Of course, each of the scenarios in the marketreal estate largely depends on the situation in the banking sector, and on the level of solvency of citizens. Therefore, we can say that the crisis factors considered above directly influence the housing market, as well as any other. At the same time, experts still believe that objective market mechanisms - supply and demand - are formed under the influence of these factors to a limited extent. Criteria are very important, reflecting the real need of Russians in these or other types of housing, taking into account the impact of migration processes, changes in the technology of construction of apartments, etc.
Some experts, however, considerit is also possible to single out the fourth scenario, which assumes a significant increase in property prices due to the impact of a unique, in a sense, factor. As you know, the rate of the dollar rose to the ruble in 2014 almost twice. However, most currencies of other developing countries, including CIS countries, have not fallen in price to the American one. As a result, the average salary in dollars in Russia and, say, in Kazakhstan, has practically leveled off, or even, maybe, it has conceded that established in the neighboring country. As a result, apartments in the Russian Federation in terms of, say, Kazakh tenge in a number of segments are significantly cheaper than those of their neighbors. Citizens of Kazakhstan eventually come to Russia and buy housing here. This trend, as some economists suggest, may persist and intensify due to the similar activity of residents of other neighboring countries - Belarus, Azerbaijan, the Baltic states, possibly China. This can to some extent warm the demand for real estate and cause the price increase in dynamics exceeding inflation.
Perhaps a person should study by solving the problemwith whether it is worth taking a mortgage, the opinions of experts regarding the fourth scenario, but only if he lives in a border city. That is, this option can be attributed to the number of localized.
Thus, we have identified the main factors,determining the crisis trends in the real estate market, and examined the main scenarios, the study of which will allow us to determine whether it is worth taking a mortgage for an apartment in today's market situation.
Let's try to summarize.So, in the market of bank crediting - crisis. Banks, in all probability, will not be able to issue loans with the dynamics that they did in previous years, and on the same conditions on interest. Borrowers, in turn, will not always have an objective opportunity to pay on the mortgage. The consequence is a decrease in demand. The reason for the banking crisis is the political situation. Therefore, depending on whether it is worth taking a mortgage now, when the EU and US sanctions are being applied against Russia, we probably say that there is not. It is necessary to wait until the situation in the banks stabilizes, they will find new sources of loans to pay off existing obligations, or they will be helped by the Government.
The second factor that can influence the decisionOn whether to take a mortgage right now - the situation on the Russian real estate market. Basic economists singulate three scenarios. This is the stabilization of prices, their small growth, commensurate with inflation, or a decline. Or, if a person lives in a border town, some increase in the cost of apartments.
Is it worth taking a mortgage?Pros and cons of this decision in relation to the current market situation are quite obvious. Among the positive moments - the opportunity to invest profitable, if the demand in the near future will grow. Economists, while recognizing the significant depth of the current crisis, believe that the situation will improve in the foreseeable future - due to the possible return of oil prices, import substitution, diversification of the country's economy. Also, investments in real estate, at least, will ensure the safety of monetary investments in relation to inflation. Among the negative sides of the decision to buy housing - the likelihood of a drop in prices or lack of growth is quite high. Neither one nor the other will not be beneficial for the buyer of the apartment. Also, most likely, at this stage, banks will not be able to offer borrowers comfortable terms of interest.
