Recently, in the mediavery often there are words that are not entirely understandable for a person without financial education and who are not well versed in the economy. This is the bi-currency basket.
This concept was introduced by the Central Bank in2005 year. Let's try to figure out what a bi-currency basket is and where it can be used. Earlier, the policy of exchange rates for the main banking institution of the country was the US dollar, but from February 1, 2005 the euro appeared, and its share increased from 0.1 to 2007 to 0.45. The currency basket formed in this way allows the Central Bank to be flexible enough to approach the issue of fluctuating exchange rates and to adjust the ruble exchange rate in a peculiar way.
The bi-currency basket is a benchmark for determining the present ruble rate against the dollar and euro. At the present stage, it is formed from 55% of dollars 45% of euro.
For a long time in the country the currencyrate at 30 rubles. But in 2008 there was some expansion of the currency corridor and the rate began to fluctuate from 26 rubles. up to 41 rubles. With a long-term retention basket at 30 rubles. there were considerable expenditures of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the country. Because of what the Central Bank decided on a soft devaluation of the ruble, which led to an increase in the price of the ruble in the bi-currency basket. This event allowed several to save the currency reserves of the country, however, there appeared a speculative need for foreign currency, both for the population and for banking institutions.
The formation of the price of the dual currency basket isunder the influence of market factors and indicators, and is also directly dependent on the policy of the Central Bank. Strong influence on the ruble exchange rate against foreign currency (dollar and euro), and as a consequence, on the price of this type of basket, is constantly exerted by world prices for oil and raw materials.
If we analyze the dynamics, the bi-currencythe basket with its price is subject to considerable fluctuations. For example, in August 2008, the minimum exchange rate of the ruble was 29.27 rubles. By February 2009, the world economic crisis was already beginning, and the rate increased significantly and amounted to 40.93 rubles.
As for 2012, things are going on heremore positively. So, on July 3 this year. currency auctions ended with a decrease in the euro and the dollar against the ruble. The dollar saw a decline in the rate of 45 kopecks (32.15 rubles.) Compared with the previous close, while the euro fell by 46 kopecks. (was - 41 rubles., became - 40.54 rubles.)
As a consequence, the bi-currency basket at a price has dropped to 35.9255 rubles. (by 40 kopecks in comparison with the previous period)
As already indicated, its price depends onthe cost of oil. In this case, we see a decrease in this value and restore it to the level of $ 100 per barrel. As predicted by prominent economists, it is possible that the price of the bi-currency basket may drop to 35 rubles. at the current - 36.0 rubles.
Since during July 2012, foreign exchangeInterventions of the Central Bank had a systematic character, then the daily purchases amount to an average of $ 200 million. This may be insignificant, but still help strengthen the ruble.
When setting the cost of oil at a higher level100 dollars per barrel the ruble can continue its strengthening. At the same time, the bi-currency basket will decline in price, but the Central Bank should not impede this, as foreign currency is sold in sufficient volumes (this may be seasonal and connected with holiday time).
However, strengthening the ruble today can be for the countryturn into a strong fall in the future. If the cost of oil continues to rise, then the movement to the upper boundary of the basket will increase, and for today this distance is small.
In the absence of promised disruptions in supplies from the Middle East of oil, the bi-currency basket will reach its price of 38.15 rubles, and possibly even higher.
