The theme of the fall of the ruble recently enoughoften rises in the press. Publications are different: from chaotic philistine (“What to do with rubles?”), To fairly thorough, analytical. This article is intended to give a certain systematized generalized material on this topic, based on the publications available in the Russian press.
Analytics is sometimes a paradoxical thing.In preparing the answer to this purely Russian question, we are faced with a decent lighting, sounding from the mouth of ... Western analyst Chris Weafer. According to his point of view, the shortage of structural changes for the Russian economy has matured and shaped to such an extent that 2014 should be decisive for their implementation: either they will occur at this particular time, or not at all (for reflection: in 2016 - parliamentary elections in 2018 - presidential elections).
At the same time, as the scientist says, it should be borne in mind that the reforms will produce results only in 2–3 years.
The focus should be shifted from the outdated locomotive.economic growth - an extensive commodity economy - to a fundamentally new engine of economic growth. One of the tools for such a reorientation is the ruble exchange rate. What to do with it? This question has two alternative answers.
1. The position of supporters of neoliberalism (represented by the Central Bank, ministries, oligarchy) is reduced to long-term reforms and, accordingly, to the launch of the ruble into “free swimming”.
2. Conservatives, represented by security forces, bureaucracy, and state-owned concerns tend to slow down changes in every way.
The key message for the start of reforms wasboth those and others are aware that sitting on their hands is already more risky than reconstruction. To create a Russian investment resource, two conditions are necessary: expensive oil and a cheap ruble. So, the command was given: "Forward!"
Безусловно, вначале была оценена macroeconomic situation of the country. The economy has contributed to the ten-year stability of the ruble. The stock market of Russia is tempting for private investors. Impressive international reserves have been accumulated - $ 500 billion.
In the future, the Russian ruble is prepared for an integrative function - a single currency for all countries of the Customs Union.
The primary message of our reasoning should bethe policy of the Central Bank - a government agency that organizes money circulation and influences the rates of national and other currencies. The head of the main bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, has repeatedly voiced her main points.
They see the official vision of the mission.Russia's national currency as floating, not tied administratively to the dollar and euro rates. To the questions: “What to do with rubles?” The head of the Central Bank replies that, using an inexpensive currency, the economy should be strengthened, and that, in turn, will strengthen the ruble.
A fundamentally new look at the mission of the nationalcurrency proposed by the "Main areas of monetary policy from 2014 to 2016.". This document justifies and regulates the policy of the Bank of Russia: from targeting the ruble exchange rate to targeting inflation. It is planned to fully switch to a floating mechanism for regulating the national currency rate by 2015. In carrying out the above program, in January 1914, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation stopped foreign exchange intervention to maintain the exchange rate, respectively, the ruble falls. What if the economic indicators for the Eurozone countries at the same time show a positive trend? Russia should maintain its strategy.
The problem of a falling ruble, the head of the Bank of RussiaIt calls for an objective assessment: it was not the ruble that fell, but the dollar and the euro strengthened. As is known, the beginning of this process laid the reduction of the repurchase of the assets of the United States Federal Reserve under the concept of "quantitative easing" - up to $ 65 billion per month.
Since the end of 2012 finally took shaperedistribution of world development centers. The main drivers of economic growth have become the United States and Europe. The economy of Russia, as well as Asian countries, in 2013 showed trends of stagnation. In the same context falls and the decline in the development of China.
Эльвира Набиуллина ключевой фактор для роста sees the national currency in stimulating the development of the economy. She points to a significant economic lever for rectifying the situation: the predominance of Russian exports over its imports. At the same time, the state does not decide what to do with rubles, objectively assessing the situation in manual mode.
In the short term, this trenddetermines the growing profitability of exporters of raw materials. But in the long term, the ruble should “rely” on the business activity of other, non-primary sectors of the Russian economy.
Как утверждают российские банкиры (Антон Мухин, financial advisor of the Irkutsk branch of the BCS, Prime Minister in Irkutsk) the current pressure on the ruble is speculative. In the long run, its growth should be supported by a positive outlook for oil exports and the “reserves for maneuvers” of the Central Bank. The banker is sure that the state financial strategy provides for a certain stage that the ruble has fallen. What to do - see the following steps of the Central Bank.
Temporary depreciation is confirmedresearch conducted by analysts Bank America_Merrill_Lynch, which by macroeconomic modeling determined that in the second and fourth quarter of this year, the price of Russian oil will grow.
At the same time, the head of the Central Bank calls on allRussian market players together and comprehensively tackle the problem of the fall of the ruble. She recalled that the Central Bank is not the only entity in the country's foreign exchange market. Its function is to skillfully evaluate and cope with short-term fluctuations of the national currency, thereby maintaining a stable situation for the business.
The long-term trend of its decline,as Elvira Nabiullina points out, is related to the structural influence of the export-oriented raw materials economy. That is, the answer to the challenge of time: “What to do with rubles?” Is associated with a fundamental structural reload of the entire economy in the complex.
Очевидно то, что слабый рубль является an effective lever for an export – oriented country, its goal is to support its producer. So says Evgeny Bolotin, Chairman of the Board of the Banking Union of the Urals. He believes that the decision of the exchange rate alternative (to regulate / not regulate) is obvious: industry growth and payment of taxes are necessary to accompany a controlled fall in the ruble. What to do if at the same time import becomes more expensive? Replace it with Russian products.
Now about the position of entrepreneurs in the market of valuablepapers. On the one hand, as Radik Akhmetshin, the director of the branch of the Urals stock market association, believes, business has a chance to lay the foundation for its future growth, buying shares at falling prices. Indeed, in the future, their course will certainly grow. The latter is also confirmed by the Russian Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov. However, leading Russian economists expect a permanent devaluation of the national currency during 2014 to 20%.
On the other hand, the pressure of the falling ruble onRussia's stock market, in fact, is just words. In reality, since its main players are non-residents, foreign investors are forced to “take over” the problem of falling stock prices.
Как реагирует население России на падение рубля?This question was studied by Vladimir Zotov (Directorate of financial / institutions and investment of the Ural Bank). According to the banker, the demand for cash has definitely increased, while a small part of deposits is taken. Against this background, there is no tendency to translate ruble deposits into dollar or euro. As an illustration of the above, he voiced the following statistics: if the ruble deposits of the Russian population are about 16.3 trillion. rubles, then currency, converted at the rate of the Central Bank in rubles - only 3.3 trillion. rub., or 20%.
However, the Russians who have experienced and experienced no longerone crisis, they still ask the question: “The ruble is falling - what to do?” The answer is traditional: you should diversify your funds. The following strategy, for example, is quite reasonable: put half of the money on a ruble deposit, one of the remaining quarters in a dollar deposit, and the rest in a euro deposit.
Agree, already ridiculous today seem“Problems” of compatriots who regularly dangle abroad in order to make the same import purchases that they could make in Russia, but at more favorable prices. You see, their purchasing power has fallen when converting rubles.
Many citizens of our state, unlikefirst, are deprived of financial airbags. Another problem is topical for them - what to do with the ruble today? In principle, funds in the amount of up to 30 thousand rubles. can be kept in cash at home.
Now consider the situation when freecitizens still have money. They should not take ruble deposits from the bank. According to the terms of the deposit agreement, by terminating it ahead of time, the bank’s client will not receive interest. With this he will only increase his own damage with his own hands.
If you have long dreamed of buying an imported car,The question is particularly relevant for you: “What to do with the ruble today?” The answer to it is brief: “Buy!” Indeed, in the future, the fall in the national currency will make your dream more expensive.
If you summarize the qualified advice to fellow citizens, wondering how for themselves to create a safety margin when the national currency falls, then everything will be reduced to two extremely simple positions.
First:does not recommend making investments in low liquidity funds. For example, income from real estate is possible only for large periods of time. Moreover, with inflation, in principle, it is generally not recommended to sell real estate. In a crisis, the dynamics of the need for money is poorly predicted.
And yet, what to do with the devaluation of the ruble?The second position indicates that the recommended direction of investment of funds of the population are liquid assets: bank deposits, precious metals, mutual funds from investment companies.
And how can one do without the old, good age-old advice that has already become traditional: citizens, learn to save, save a tenth of the money earned every month for a rainy day!
Anecdotically look "misery on camera"louder than all the Russian oil workers: “Sent! The collapse of the ruble! What should I do? !! ”After all, the people who studied the economy a little bit are aware that with the rising price of oil and the falling dollar, the“ raw materials ”fall into nirvana, because their incomes are calculated in hard currency, and expenses (including taxes) ) - in rubles. The opposite is happening: the fall of the ruble becomes the income of the oligarchs.
Among the non-losers will certainly beSurgutneftegaz is a deeply commercial structure with an impressive actual currency position of $ 30 billion. We note that Lukoil and Rosneft will benefit, but less. They will not be able to maximize profits due to the existing short-term foreign currency accounts payable (the currency for its repayment will have to be bought at the inflation rate). The leading exporter, Gazprom, is likely to receive excess profits from the “political” increase in tariffs.
Director of Alpari Analytical AgencyAlexander Razuvaev predicts that as a result of this prevailing tariff forks between the price of oil (gas) and taxes in rubles, the main income of the oil and gas complex will be 862 billion rubles. with additional revenues of 682 billion rubles. In a word, when the ruble depreciates, what to do, oilmen know best.
Thus, a weak ruble is not so mucha sign of crisis, how much is a specific financial development tool. It contributes to the formation of a monetary “airbag” for the necessary structural changes in the economy.
It follows from the above that the innerRussia's investment resource is directly dependent on whether it will be possible to turn the super-profits “torn out from the stomach” of the oligarchs into it, formed during a falling ruble. The country needs an industrial policy managed by the state, targeted investments by state corporations and the government, the innovative development of the nuclear industry, oil and gas, and the defense industry.
