Natural population decline is a problem that is one of the most urgent in the world. A situation arises as a result of the prevalence of mortality over births.
Fertility and mortality are processes thathave a decisive influence on the demographic situation in a separate state or in the world as a whole. Both indicators are quantitative. Fertility reflects the number of newborns for a certain period in a certain territory, calculated, as a rule, in the form of a common coefficient - the number of people born alive per 1000 population. In addition, the birth rate can be determined by such indicators:
Mortality is defined as the ratio of the numberdied for a certain period and in a certain territory to the population. The smallest death to date is recorded in Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, the largest - in Swaziland, Lesotho, Botswana and other countries with a low standard of living, health, and the HIV epidemic.
The birth and death rates aredirect impact on other statistics in demography, for example, natural loss and population growth. The natural population loss (or the negative coefficient of natural increase) is fixed if the death rate exceeds the birth rate. Otherwise, we can talk about natural growth, which is the basis of population growth.
The greatest natural decline in the populationis typical for many countries in Eastern Europe. In the list of depopulating states (in terms of the rate of natural population decrease from the worst demographic situation):
The map below graphically represents the rate of natural population growth in the world.
A census taken in 1897registered 125 million people living in the Russian Empire. At the time, 67.5 million people lived in the modern borders of the Russian Federation. The natural decline in the population of Russia from then until 1994, when the decline in population growth began, was observed only once. So, in 1946, after the Great Patriotic War, the number of inhabitants decreased from almost 111 million (in 1941) to 97.5 million.
The graph below shows the natural increase andthe dynamics of fertility, mortality since 1950. It can be seen that the natural decline in the population (at that time, not yet a negative natural increase, but a visible deterioration in the demographic situation), together with a decline in the birth rate, were observed in the post-war years. Then the situation stabilized. The next significant deterioration is observed with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Then, due to the unfavorable political situation and the deterioration of the quality of life of the population, the birth rate simultaneously decreased and mortality increased.
At the moment the population of Russia is146.8 million people. In the last few years (since 2010), the population of the Russian Federation has been slow, but increasing from year to year. At the same time, the demographic situation as a whole leaves much to be desired.
Current demographic trends in the Russian Federation are as follows:
There are several groups of factors that influence the occurrence of a demographic crisis, but it is not always possible to single out the dominant factors.
The forecast for the current demographicThe situation at the moment is not favorable. If we do not raise the birth rate now, then by 2025, to stabilize the situation, an indicator of the total fertility rate equal to 3.41 children per woman will be necessary.
With current trends we can expect thatRussia's population will fall to 80 million by 2080. According to pessimistic forecasts, this will happen even earlier - in 2060. In the opinion of many scholars and politicians, with such a number, it will not be possible to keep the territory of the Russian Federation within the current borders under control.
It is believed that the only way out ofdifficult demographic situation is to strengthen the institution of a family with children. However, in practice, deeper changes are needed. So, it is necessary to ensure a stable political and economic situation, implement preferential taxation and crediting of young families, strengthen the position of the family among other social institutions and much more.